Climate Change and Plant Diseases: An Applied Climatic-Geographical Study of Date Palm Trees in Dhi Qar Governorate

Abstract

This study examines the role of climate change indicators in shaping the incidence and distribution of diseases affecting date palm trees across Dhi Qar Governorate. Using monthly and annual climatic records from the Nasiriyah meteorological station — the representative station for the governorate — we analyzed a major climatic cycle spanning seventy-eight years (1941–2018). For analytical clarity, this long cycle was divided into seven sub-cycles of approximately eleven years each, except the last sub-cycle which covers twelve years: 1941–1951, 1952–1962, 1963–1973, 1974–1984, 1985–1995, 1996–2006, and 2007–2018.

Through statistical analysis of multiple climatic variables, the study traces prevailing trends in key climate elements: solar radiation; temperatures (maximum, minimum, and mean); atmospheric pressure; wind regimes; precipitation; and humidity. It further documents trends in dust phenomena (dust storms, rising dust, and suspended dust) and extreme thermal events (heat and cold waves). The analysis demonstrates that these climatic shifts — both directly and indirectly — have contributed to increased vulnerability of date palms to a range of physiological and climatic diseases.

At the district level, Nasiriyah emerged as the most affected area. Several interacting factors explain this outcome: frequent dust events linked to the district’s proximity to the western desert plateau; limited irrigated and cultivated land; severe air pollution arising from a high concentration of factories located near populated areas; and the proliferation of brick kilns in subdistricts such as Al-Islah. Additionally, post-war reconstruction activities, deteriorating public services, sewage overflows, outbreaks of pests and pathogens, and airborne biological agents (including pollen and plant volatiles) appear to have exacerbated disease incidence in palms. Following Nasiriyah, the districts rank as follows for the period 2012–2022: Shatra (second), Al-Refai (third), Suq al-Shuyukh (fourth), and Al-Chibayish (fifth). These spatial patterns reflect the combined influence of climatic, geographic, environmental, and anthropogenic stressors acting across the governorate.