Geopolitical analysis of the Russian strategy after 2021 and its relationship to the Russian-Ukrainian war

Abstract

The Russian-Ukrainian war is of great importance in geopolitical studies, due to the geographical location of the two countries, as well as their interconnected economic and political relations with other countries. It is expected that the results of the conflict between them will be reflected in the balance of international power and the world map. On February 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin gave a televised speech that included Russian justifications for carrying out what he called a special military operation, which represents a defensive strategy for the idea of ​​Ukraine joining NATO, which Russia considers a threat to its security and territorial integrity. The researcher addressed the problem of the study, which is what is the relationship between the Russian strategy after 2021 and the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war? The aim of the study was a geopolitical analysis of the new Russian strategy, with a statement of the importance of Ukraine's geographical location for Russia. The researcher used the Power Analysis approach, and the historical approach was used to study the temporal dimension of the state and its strategies during historical stages, especially with regard to Russia's relations with the countries of the world, especially the countries of Its geographical proximity, and the study reached the most important results, the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the emergence of Ukraine as an independent state is the biggest and most important problem facing Russian strategies, especially after 2021, as it may play the role of an agent for the Euro-Atlantic strategy in Europe, consciously or unconsciously. After Russian President Vladimir Putin assumed power in 2001, the main goal of the foreign strategy was for the Russians to regain their role and influence in the regions of the former Soviet Union. In return, the methods of the Russian state were translated using the strategy of force by annexing the Crimean Peninsula on March 18, 2014, to preserve the rights of Russian speakers there, in addition to protecting Russian influence in the northern Black Sea and ensuring the movement of military fleets and the ease of their movement in warm waters and ensuring the existence of a buffer wall between Russia and the West. On December 9, 2021, the Russian President discussed with the press what was happening in Donbas and considered it a genocide. The neglect of the Russian guarantee initiatives that were provided was the main reason for the military movements against Ukraine on February 24, 2022 on several main axes: the eastern axis to control the Donbas region towards the north with Kharkov, the north from the center towards the capital Kiev, the south from Crimea and the sea towards controlling the southern coast of the Sea of ​​Azov and up to the borders of the Kherson and Odessa provinces.