Assessing Recurring Droughts in Iraq Using the Survey Drought Index (SPI)

Abstract

This research aims to determine the frequency of drought in Iraq—a matter of utmost importance, given that the country is classified among those most vulnerable to climate impacts and water scarcity, with significant consequences for water and food security as well as socio-economic stability. The study analyzes drought frequency over the period 1985–2022 by examining data from nine meteorological stations across Iraq (Mosul, Kirkuk, Khanaqin, Rutba, Baghdad, Al-Hayy, Najaf, Amarah, and Basra), utilizing the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) formula and the DrinC software. The results reveal spatial and temporal variations in drought frequency throughout the study period; the "moderately dry" category recorded the highest total frequency, followed by the "moderately wet" category, at both annual and seasonal scales.