The impact of population growth on the exacerbation of the housing shortage problem in the city of Afak - a future vision for the year 2040

Abstract

    The housing crisis at the present time represents a general problem for the study area and for Iraq in general as a result of the high population growth according to the requirements of the demographic stage that the (young) population of Iraq is going through, which will lead to the continuation of population growth for nearly 50 years to come, despite the decline in the growth rate The expected population, due to the high fertility rate responsible for childbearing. This current demographic situation of the population came in conjunction with an exceptional stage that the country is going through at all levels, which led to the disruption of most service sectors or a decrease in their quality efficiency, especially the housing sector, which resulted in an increasing housing deficit due to the gap between population growth and housing growth and this is what Predicts the worsening of the housing deficit in the future. Therefore, studying this problem in the study area is an urgent necessity imposed by the exceptional circumstances of the country. It is necessary to identify its causes to develop solutions that will reduce its effects in the foreseeable future and reduce them in the long term. Accordingly, the research included a demographic analysis of the housing deficit problem by identifying the reasons for its emergence as well as studying its future trends in the target year. The study reached to determine the population growth rate in 2020 (the base year), which amounted to (2.2), while the study predicted its decline to (2.18) in 2040 (the target year) based on a set of demographic, social and economic data that push towards reducing childbearing. The current (crude) housing deficit was determined at 658 housing units, while the net housing deficit amounted to 1,263 housing units, which was calculated after subtracting the uninhabitable housing units. As for the expected housing deficit in the target year, it will amount to about 8896 housing units (48%) a quantitative deficit and (52%) a qualitative deficit resulting from the dilapidation of residential buildings and their departure from the appropriate level of housing.