Projecting the effects of climate change on maximum temperatures at the Baghdad station, based on climate models (CMIP5) and radiative forcing scenarios (RCP)

Abstract

Climate changes and their effects on climatic phenomena and elements, as well as imbalances in the ecosystem as a result of these changes, have become the talk of the world, which calls for studying and tracking the observed changes, and even expectations and forecasts, regarding the occurrence of the ecosystem on Earth. Therefore, the goal of the research is to predict the maximum temperature for the period (2025). -2045), based on the maximum temperature observed at the Baghdad station for the forecast base period (1985-2005) based on radiative forcing scenarios (RCP,) and climate models (CMIP5) published by the Working Group on Global Climate Change (IPCC), by employing downscaling technology. The range (statistical downscaling) SDSM, to obtain expectations of climate and environmental change, shows that the summer months witnessed a significant increase in expected temperatures by 3 degrees Celsius, which represents half the increase expected globally, 1.5 degrees Celsius, while the seasonal averages witnessed an increase of about 2 degrees, and this rate shows its convergence. With the global temperature increase, statistical techniques have also demonstrated the ability to predict climate elements recorded at Iraqi stations